Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LT -3500 SELA +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LT -13.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -7.4 (+1.6) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -9.6 (-0.6) | 140.9 (+6.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -9.2 (-0.2) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -10.9 (-1.9) | 144.9 (+2.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2023 | LT 89 – 60 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#150) | -6.5 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#117) | -0.38 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#133) | -1.00 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#94) | 0.461 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 33.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 19.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 37.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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