Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | ASU -135 SDSU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +12 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -8.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -3.3 (-15.3) | 138.8 (+9.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -5.5 (-17.5) | 141.9 (+6.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -5.5 (-17.5) | 142.7 (+5.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -5.1 (-17.1) | 142.5 (+5.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2021 | SDSU 65 – 63 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 14-3 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-6 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#62) | 5.2 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#47) | 1.97 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#50) | 3.15 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#86) | 0.676 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 27.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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