Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -4000 UNCW +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -14.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -12.7 (+7.3) | 142.7 (-6.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -11.7 (+8.3) | 143.3 (-7.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -12.2 (+7.8) | 141.0 (-5.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-12 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 1-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 3-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#48) | 0.9 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#125) | 0.78 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#129) | 1.10 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#263) | 0.591 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 30.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 36.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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