I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–10 on winners spread MAE 9.2 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iona @ Fairfield -10.3 135.7 19% 52–67 ✗
Illinois State @ Ball State +4.4 147.1 70% 66–82 ✓
Marist @ Canisius +4.9 144.3 76% 56–52 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana +2.5 151.7 64% 56–61 ✓
Samford @ Georgia +7.3 156.1 75% 75–79 ✓
Indiana State @ Purdue — — — 68–80 —
Illinois @ Missouri +4.0 146.5 65% 78–81 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +9.3 131.5 83% 49–53 ✓
Belmont @ Lipscomb +1.6 147.0 55% 81–71 ✗
Clemson @ Alabama -5.1 133.9 31% 64–56 ✓
Oregon @ Washington -3.9 133.0 34% 74–71 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +22.9 152.6 91% 75–100 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Pepperdine +7.7 153.6 79% 89–84 ✗
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +8.7 145.4 80% 91–78 ✗
Oakland @ Michigan State +17.5 148.5 91% 91–109 ✓
Wright State @ Bowling Green +7.1 150.0 77% 85–67 ✗
Massachusetts @ Northeastern +0.4 156.3 49% 75–78 ✓
North Alabama @ Indiana +21.1 138.4 90% 52–87 ✓
Rhode Island @ Western Kentucky +1.9 148.2 60% 65–68 ✓
Richmond @ West Virginia +11.2 146.0 83% 71–87 ✓
High Point @ UNC Asheville +3.9 146.4 64% 84–90 ✓
Youngstown State @ Binghamton — — — 79–65 —
Hampton @ VMI +5.1 144.2 70% 64–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Iowa +24.7 155.2 91% 53–106 ✓
Norfolk State @ UNC Greensboro +2.3 142.4 58% 47–64 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ UIC +5.0 133.3 63% 77–66 ✗
Air Force @ Drake +14.0 133.0 87% 53–81 ✓
Milwaukee @ Western Michigan +2.0 136.2 53% 71–63 ✗
Penn State @ Michigan +3.5 155.9 69% 58–62 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Kent State +13.2 142.7 86% 73–92 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Vanderbilt +22.9 155.5 91% 41–84 ✓
Jacksonville @ South Carolina State -5.2 141.9 27% 60–58 ✓
Ohio @ Marshall +3.0 146.1 64% 67–81 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -11.0 156.2 16% 107–77 ✓
New Mexico @ Rice — — — 72–61 —
San Francisco @ California -6.6 133.2 24% 70–72 ✗
UMBC @ Coppin State -6.1 145.2 25% 66–49 ✓
Cleveland State @ Ohio State +22.3 143.2 91% 61–67 ✓
Arizona State @ Grand Canyon +5.6 150.9 72% 71–70 ✗
Weber State @ Boise State — — — 59–70 —
San José State @ Cal Poly +2.5 153.2 61% 71–73 ✓
Portland State @ Washington State +7.4 132.1 75% 60–69 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Tennessee Tech -1.6 132.4 41% 73–67 ✓
Mercer @ Georgia Southern -7.2 134.5 21% 77–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.