Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | UPST +800 WIN -1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +30 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -12.7 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -11.0 (-19.0) | 156.2 (+27.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -9.9 (-20.1) | 159.7 (+24.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -11.7 (-18.3) | 159.6 (+24.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -11.5 (-18.5) | 156.1 (+27.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 23-2 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 3-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#303) | 4.6 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#300) | 2.04 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.88 (#293) | 2.47 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#283) | 0.556 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.2% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 62.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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