Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | SCST +550 JAX -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -6.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -4.2 (+2.2) | 141.8 (-23.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -4.2 (+2.2) | 139.8 (-21.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -5.2 (+3.2) | 141.9 (-23.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -6.5 (+4.5) | 140.4 (-22.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2024 | JAX 71 – 62 SCST |
| Dec 12, 2023 | SCST 86 – 85 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -19.8 (#311) | -6.9 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#308) | -0.56 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.72 (#304) | -0.67 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#290) | 0.484 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.6% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 11.6% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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