Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | WKU -230 URI +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | URI -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -1.9 (+1.1) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -2.5 (+0.5) | 145.5 (-12.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -2.6 (+0.4) | 153.6 (-20.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -1.5 (+1.5) | 149.6 (-16.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#147) | 6.9 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#74) | 0.72 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#50) | 1.74 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#127) | 0.551 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 38.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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