Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +150 SF -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SF -8.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -6.6 (+8.6) | 133.2 (+8.8) | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -6.9 (+8.9) | 137.5 (+4.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -8.0 (+10.0) | 134.6 (+7.4) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -8.1 (+10.1) | 132.8 (+9.2) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 3-5 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#207) | 10.6 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#262) | 1.00 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#248) | 1.25 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#257) | 0.528 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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