Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | UNCG -1100 NORF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +17 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -2.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.3 (+14.7) | 142.4 (-31.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.6 (+14.4) | 135.5 (-24.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -1.6 (+15.4) | 143.2 (-32.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.7 (+15.3) | 142.9 (-31.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#213) | 0.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#215) | 0.66 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#211) | 0.79 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#260) | 0.600 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 24.1% | 45.1% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.6% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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