Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -18.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Under |
| Money | UGA -2800 SAM +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -7.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -7.3 (-3.3) | 156.1 (-2.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -5.7 (-1.7) | 149.2 (+4.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -6.5 (-2.5) | 156.3 (-2.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -8.1 (-4.1) | 154.7 (-0.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-12 | 6-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 4-5 |
| Away | 2-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#58) | 6.5 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#85) | 1.47 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#81) | 2.84 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.787 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 44.3 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 80.2% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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