Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +4 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -13.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -9.3 (-5.3) | 131.5 (-29.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -8.1 (-4.1) | 129.5 (-27.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -9.6 (-5.6) | 132.6 (-30.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -11.0 (-7.0) | 131.8 (-29.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 9-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#108) | -5.0 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#91) | -0.66 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#65) | -0.55 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#141) | 0.420 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 31.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 20.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 35.2% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 10.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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