Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | VMI -280 HAMP +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -6.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -5.1 (+9.9) | 144.2 (-1.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -3.7 (+11.3) | 148.5 (-5.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -5.4 (+9.6) | 148.7 (-5.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -5.4 (+9.6) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#117) | 1.3 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#150) | 0.67 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#128) | 0.72 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#96) | 0.517 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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