Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -1800 CSUN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +5 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -11.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -7.7 (-12.7) | 153.6 (+19.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -6.4 (-11.4) | 152.1 (+20.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -7.4 (-12.4) | 152.7 (+20.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -8.7 (-13.7) | 153.5 (+19.5) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 5-9 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | W3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#91) | -1.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#144) | 0.30 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#137) | 0.36 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#120) | 0.469 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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