Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +6 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -3.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -3.9 (+2.1) | 146.4 (+27.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.3 (+2.7) | 144.1 (+29.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -2.0 (+4.0) | 148.8 (+25.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -3.1 (+2.9) | 147.0 (+27.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 6-11 |
| Home | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#217) | -1.7 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#250) | -1.41 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#221) | -1.75 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.358 (#282) | 0.346 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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