Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -4000 FGCU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -15.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -14.3 (-18.3) | 130.3 (-2.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -11.2 (-15.2) | 134.0 (-6.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -15.9 (-19.9) | 129.8 (-1.8) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -16.2 (-20.2) | 128.9 (-0.9) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 10-8 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 4-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-4 |
| Away | 1-8 | 2-2 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#89) | -5.5 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#53) | -0.72 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#49) | -1.38 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#92) | 0.345 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 27.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 6.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.6% | 7.8% |
Game Analysis
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