Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -2400 UTEP +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -14.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -15.9 (-7.9) | 143.4 (-13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -15.5 (-7.5) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -17.3 (-9.3) | 142.4 (-12.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#55) | -0.6 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#72) | -0.43 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#77) | -0.62 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#175) | 0.513 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 59.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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