Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | UNCA -200 HPU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -0.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.4 (+12.6) | 146.5 (+0.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.6 (+12.4) | 142.3 (+4.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -1.3 (+14.3) | 148.9 (-1.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -0.4 (+13.4) | 147.5 (-0.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 6-11 |
| Home | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#251) | 0.2 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#278) | -1.20 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#260) | -1.50 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.332 (#281) | 0.310 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 37.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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