Dayton
Flyers
85
–
82
2OT
FINAL
Neutral
Pit Boss Grills Holiday Hoopsgiving
Mississippi State
Bulldogs
Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | DAY -155 MSST +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -5.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.5 (+45.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.3 (+5.3) | 128.7 (+38.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -3.2 (+6.2) | 123.1 (+43.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -3.7 (+6.7) | 126.7 (+40.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.5 (+5.5) | 128.7 (+38.3) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#177) | 3.5 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#134) | -0.19 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#131) | -0.60 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#83) | 0.490 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 28.5% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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