Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | DAV -1300 GASO +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +32 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -9.8 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -6.6 (+25.4) | 141.3 (-19.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -9.7 (+22.3) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -7.0 (+25.0) | 139.5 (-17.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#106) | -0.7 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#179) | 1.07 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#160) | 1.23 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#164) | 0.406 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 11.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.0% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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