Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | USF -165 WOF +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +2 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -8.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -3.6 (+5.6) | 141.4 (-27.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -2.9 (+4.9) | 138.0 (-24.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -2.8 (+4.8) | 140.9 (-26.9) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 12-5 |
| Home | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#227) | 3.6 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#194) | -0.30 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#187) | -0.28 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#158) | 0.549 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 9.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 82.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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