Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +18 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -6.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -7.0 (-11.0) | 148.6 (+23.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -6.7 (-11.3) | 153.7 (+18.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -9.2 (-8.8) | 154.4 (+17.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -7.8 (-10.2) | 150.2 (+21.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 23-2 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 3-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#283) | 2.6 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#285) | 1.96 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.06 (#278) | 2.45 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.347 (#276) | 0.638 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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