Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | GTWN +550 VILL -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +13 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -3.2 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.6 (-11.4) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.2 (-9.8) | 138.9 (+0.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -3.1 (-9.9) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.4 (-10.6) | 143.6 (-4.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-0 |
| Away | 2-6 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#113) | 12.1 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#131) | 2.65 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#89) | 3.52 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#103) | 0.709 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 48.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 80.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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