Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | SIU +230 MUR -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -8.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -7.6 (-3.6) | 147.9 (-11.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -6.0 (-2.0) | 149.0 (-13.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -7.3 (-3.3) | 146.9 (-10.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#79) | 2.6 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#26) | 0.32 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#29) | 0.85 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#47) | 0.503 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 11.3% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 11.1% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 48.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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