Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +270 WCU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +6 | 202 | Lost |
| Massey | WCU -5.4 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+43.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -4.7 (-1.3) | 153.0 (+49.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -5.9 (-0.1) | 148.7 (+53.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -5.3 (-0.7) | 155.5 (+46.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -4.3 (-1.7) | 152.2 (+49.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#279) | 1.5 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#247) | 0.91 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#246) | 1.74 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.365 (#267) | 0.520 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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