Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -13.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -8.3 (+7.7) | 131.3 (-7.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -10.7 (+5.3) | 134.0 (-10.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -10.1 (+5.9) | 133.4 (-9.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SPU 71 – 43 NIA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NIA 78 – 68 SPU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NIA 70 – 60 SPU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIA 68 – 59 SPU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SPU 72 – 67 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 9-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#143) | -6.5 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#150) | -0.48 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#126) | -0.81 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#154) | 0.514 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 27.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 32.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 4.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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