Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | USM +160 USA -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -1.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.0 (-2.0) | 132.2 (+18.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -1.5 (-2.5) | 129.7 (+21.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.1 (-0.9) | 131.6 (+19.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -1.3 (-2.3) | 133.6 (+17.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
Game Analysis
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