Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | NDSU -170 SDAK +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -4.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 129.5 (+11.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.6 (+5.4) | 130.6 (+10.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -1.4 (+5.6) | 132.0 (+9.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -1.6 (+5.4) | 129.9 (+11.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 11-4 |
| Home | 6-2 | 7-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#183) | -6.0 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#289) | -2.92 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.01 (#294) | -4.27 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#215) | 0.322 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 24.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.9% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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