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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–5 on winners spread MAE 8.4 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Charleston Southern @ Longwood +7.1 144.9 79% 78–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Utah -1.0 149.8 48% 93–65 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +11.0 136.1 87% 61–63 ✓
Louisiana @ Georgia State +1.4 139.8 57% 70–94 ✓
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.1 149.1 66% 81–90 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +7.6 143.0 76% 69–77 ✓
Hampton @ Elon +7.4 137.6 77% 62–70 ✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific -1.9 145.3 38% 87–70 ✓
San Francisco @ Washington State +3.3 148.0 67% 82–91 ✓
Ohio @ Central Michigan +0.1 150.0 45% 57–55 ✗
Texas @ Texas A&M +5.6 138.9 74% 60–80 ✓
Delaware State @ Howard +2.9 149.7 63% 94–100 ✓
Missouri State @ Bradley +12.4 143.8 87% 60–69 ✓
Michigan @ USC -4.9 147.1 25% 85–74 ✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State -6.0 138.5 32% 74–77 ✗
Southern Utah @ Grand Canyon +11.8 148.6 87% 71–82 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist +2.1 147.0 65% 59–61 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota +7.2 160.9 77% 84–91 ✓
California @ Clemson +11.6 150.3 86% 68–80 ✓
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -11.2 148.2 16% 96–68 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +20.9 153.8 91% 83–89 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton -11.6 141.0 15% 90–51 ✓
Sam Houston @ UTEP +6.2 148.8 76% 72–81 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield +5.4 135.3 70% 65–80 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +10.6 143.2 84% 57–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland -14.1 139.3 13% 81–58 ✓
Cal Poly @ Hawai'i +3.0 150.2 73% 55–68 ✓
Indiana @ Penn State +8.1 153.4 77% 77–71 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina -2.5 151.8 42% 78–76 ✓
Army @ Boston University +4.0 138.2 64% 63–71 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland +1.8 143.3 57% 74–80 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner -0.6 130.1 31% 71–59 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Mercyhurst -6.1 131.5 23% 62–50 ✓
Providence @ UConn +11.8 139.6 87% 84–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Purdue +6.0 142.1 76% 61–79 ✓
Stonehill @ Saint Francis -0.2 145.0 41% 64–60 ✓
Lafayette @ Navy +0.2 139.2 55% 70–71 ✓
Holy Cross @ American University +0.4 140.6 53% 64–75 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell +4.2 134.9 61% 60–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University +9.1 134.5 84% 39–53 ✓
Iona @ Siena +5.6 139.4 70% 74–73 ✗
Manhattan @ Rider -1.1 147.9 40% 80–79 ✓
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's +6.0 139.7 74% 62–68 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +2.8 136.1 64% 62–69 ✓
Canisius @ Sacred Heart +11.4 147.4 89% 82–99 ✓
Murray State @ Drake +10.8 130.9 75% 66–59 ✗
Kansas @ UCF -1.7 143.3 49% 99–48 ✓
Maryland @ Oregon +1.7 150.1 68% 79–83 ✓
Illinois @ Washington -8.4 154.3 19% 81–77 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State +10.1 146.2 83% 54–85 ✓
North Texas @ Memphis +9.9 139.3 84% 64–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.