They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–17 on winners spread MAE 8.4 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
LSU @ Tennessee +12.9 152.1 87% 68–88 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan -5.2 148.5 26% 68–72 ✗
Alabama @ Auburn +3.5 165.6 72% 81–99 ✓
Louisville @ Syracuse +10.4 149.7 83% 92–94 ✓
Pittsburgh @ NC State +2.0 141.4 57% 67–64 ✗
Army @ Lehigh +6.7 129.5 69% 68–57 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +18.2 152.3 90% 61–101 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +7.8 142.3 75% 69–64 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Presbyterian -2.7 146.6 42% 75–77 ✗
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +7.3 132.6 72% 59–75 ✓
Villanova @ Xavier +3.7 145.1 65% 53–56 ✓
Colgate @ Boston University -6.8 130.2 22% 74–64 ✓
Davidson @ Duquesne +5.9 133.4 72% 72–59 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ George Mason +4.9 136.2 66% 85–79 ✗
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure +3.6 143.6 65% 73–79 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +9.5 137.1 85% 44–43 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy -0.4 132.2 43% 80–67 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +2.3 143.3 64% 50–57 ✓
Furman @ Mercer -1.7 146.9 42% 69–78 ✗
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +9.0 142.2 82% 64–71 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +3.8 150.2 69% 75–72 ✗
Marshall @ Troy +6.6 148.4 78% 66–82 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +11.5 145.3 84% 81–76 ✗
UTSA @ Wichita State +9.1 152.1 82% 64–84 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe +5.0 148.9 72% 75–79 ✓
North Texas @ Tulsa -2.2 134.2 34% 68–55 ✓
SMU @ Rice -8.6 142.6 21% 95–69 ✓
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa +3.1 140.6 66% 65–72 ✓
UIC @ Illinois State +1.3 129.6 46% 61–56 ✗
Bradley @ Evansville -6.2 143.6 31% 70–73 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Drake +8.0 141.4 81% 88–92 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +1.0 144.6 54% 64–69 ✓
Portland @ Gonzaga +24.1 155.6 91% 64–96 ✓
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss +4.9 141.4 69% 73–78 ✓
Georgia State @ Louisiana +9.6 145.9 84% 78–69 ✗
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +4.5 149.2 73% 65–78 ✓
James Madison @ Arkansas State -5.6 158.2 26% 77–73 ✓
App State @ Texas State -7.0 135.5 26% 56–63 ✗
Creighton @ Providence -0.6 145.4 54% 87–91 ✗
Notre Dame @ Duke +15.5 134.1 88% 53–71 ✓
UCLA @ Stanford +4.6 136.7 63% 82–74 ✗
Nebraska @ Northwestern +2.2 150.1 63% 68–80 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri -3.4 138.2 36% 79–60 ✓
Georgia @ Mississippi State +5.8 143.8 78% 62–75 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky +4.3 143.2 71% 82–90 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego +0.5 146.5 54% 77–79 ✓
USC @ California +1.6 147.9 59% 77–83 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -12.3 154.3 14% 88–84 ✓
UAlbany @ Binghamton +1.1 149.5 58% 57–69 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +11.8 155.2 87% 85–97 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.