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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–11 on winners spread MAE 9.8 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Clemson @ North Carolina +8.7 152.4 77% 80–76 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Houston +20.3 132.6 90% 63–79 ✓
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech -5.5 152.2 37% 80–51 ✓
Florida State @ Boston College +3.0 146.9 66% 63–62 ✗
Indiana @ Ohio State +6.5 145.0 74% 76–73 ✗
Rhode Island @ George Washington +5.1 155.0 73% 88–65 ✗
VCU @ Fordham -4.4 135.7 31% 75–60 ✓
Canisius @ Niagara +2.6 147.2 71% 64–69 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +4.4 149.0 65% 62–59 ✗
Ohio @ Ball State +0.1 148.8 46% 84–79 ✗
Central Michigan @ Akron +13.1 133.6 86% 47–68 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +9.0 145.7 82% 61–63 ✓
Buffalo @ Bowling Green +11.7 146.9 85% 73–87 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -10.9 146.1 15% 91–87 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas -0.2 143.9 54% 70–65 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Joseph's -3.0 142.4 41% 94–79 ✓
BYU @ Oklahoma -0.7 147.1 57% 66–82 ✗
UT Martin @ Little Rock +0.8 158.6 52% 57–77 ✓
Butler @ UConn +11.6 150.9 86% 62–71 ✓
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -11.7 153.0 17% 109–77 ✓
New Mexico @ Wyoming -11.4 154.1 17% 91–73 ✓
Texas Tech @ Baylor +7.4 151.6 81% 73–79 ✓
Nevada @ Utah State +5.8 148.8 73% 77–63 ✗
Boise State @ Colorado State +4.6 144.5 74% 62–75 ✓
Charlotte @ South Florida +2.6 133.7 67% 69–72 ✓
Michigan State @ Minnesota -2.6 136.6 38% 56–59 ✗
Fresno State @ San José State +1.4 143.9 55% 69–57 ✗
San Diego State @ Air Force -11.9 139.4 15% 77–64 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pacific -20.2 133.0 11% 84–43 ✓
High Point @ UNC Asheville +0.5 156.3 58% 81–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +10.7 145.9 85% 46–67 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +12.8 146.7 88% 70–76 ✓
Saint Louis @ La Salle +4.4 147.7 70% 102–84 ✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine -3.5 143.5 36% 84–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.