And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–11 on winners spread MAE 10.1 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Boise State @ Virginia Tech +4.4 143.3 75% 75–82 ✓
Stanford @ Michigan +4.7 158.2 69% 78–83 ✓
NC State @ Vanderbilt -11.6 137.2 16% 84–78 ✓
BYU @ Arizona State -13.7 137.7 13% 77–49 ✓
Texas A&M @ Florida Atlantic -4.8 146.3 44% 89–96 ✗
Kansas City @ UNC Greensboro +6.2 147.4 79% 64–76 ✓
Mercer @ Tennessee State +0.0 142.9 46% 60–59 ✗
Bryant @ Xavier +11.6 133.9 83% 75–100 ✓
Arkansas @ North Carolina +5.5 152.1 73% 72–87 ✓
Jacksonville State @ UTSA +4.1 143.5 55% 77–62 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Wake Forest +17.6 150.8 87% 56–71 ✓
Delaware @ Brown -8.8 140.6 25% 67–59 ✓
Penn State @ Butler +0.8 141.9 56% 78–88 ✓
Manhattan @ UConn +21.0 143.6 88% 60–90 ✓
Nicholls @ Mississippi State +16.8 142.9 87% 61–74 ✓
Lipscomb @ UNC Asheville -17.9 153.5 14% 86–75 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Ball State +12.6 147.3 87% 74–92 ✓
Evansville @ Chattanooga +2.6 133.1 58% 85–77 ✗
Indiana State @ Toledo -1.7 163.6 40% 76–74 ✓
Alabama State @ North Carolina A&T -1.2 154.4 40% 88–73 ✓
Long Island University @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.6 143.8 71% 83–68 ✗
Monmouth @ Belmont -3.3 153.5 32% 93–84 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Western Michigan -1.5 141.7 52% 67–68 ✗
Delaware State @ Longwood +15.3 141.2 88% 82–84 ✓
Oregon State @ Pittsburgh +12.0 151.0 82% 51–76 ✓
Oklahoma @ USC -3.6 142.2 28% 72–70 ✓
Memphis @ Villanova +2.4 143.6 62% 63–79 ✓
Montana @ Houston +27.4 131.0 90% 44–79 ✓
Jacksonville @ Robert Morris +10.9 142.3 83% 74–65 ✗
Davidson @ Saint Mary's -0.7 126.3 52% 55–89 ✗
Utah Tech @ Washington State +15.2 147.8 85% 53–93 ✓
Merrimack @ Samford +2.5 142.9 65% 71–79 ✓
UC Irvine @ Rice -14.6 147.7 14% 83–68 ✓
Canisius @ Wofford -1.5 151.0 43% 76–67 ✓
Lafayette @ Pennsylvania +12.1 138.2 80% 72–74 ✓
UIC @ Middle Tennessee -2.7 127.1 36% 70–40 ✓
Winthrop @ Georgia +2.4 141.0 56% 69–78 ✓
Grambling @ Troy +13.7 147.9 86% 67–80 ✓
Baylor @ Florida -0.5 156.6 44% 95–91 ✓
Iowa State @ Virginia Tech -10.4 144.3 20% 62–71 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Duke +26.4 147.6 91% 62–80 ✓
UC San Diego @ Idaho -12.2 143.5 20% 70–73 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Lamar +4.4 148.5 67% 65–83 ✓
Seton Hall @ Iowa +1.5 148.3 56% 72–85 ✓
Michigan @ Texas Tech -0.8 142.0 47% 57–73 ✗
New Mexico @ Pepperdine -6.3 148.1 28% 90–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.