Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -167 STAN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -6.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -6.0 (-1.0) | 160.2 (+0.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -5.1 (-0.1) | 157.5 (+3.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -4.7 (+0.3) | 158.2 (+2.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -4.3 (+0.7) | 161.2 (-0.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-10 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#83) | -0.6 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#166) | -1.07 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#168) | -2.02 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#155) | 0.440 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 39.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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