Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -165 MEM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +16 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -3.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -2.6 (+13.4) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -1.4 (+14.6) | 143.9 (-1.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.4 (+13.6) | 143.6 (-1.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -2.9 (+13.1) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#27) | 7.0 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#72) | 3.06 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#88) | 4.88 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#40) | 0.649 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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