Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -800 GRAM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -19.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -14.2 (-1.2) | 144.7 (+2.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -12.7 (+0.3) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -13.7 (-0.7) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -13.3 (-0.3) | 148.4 (-1.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#254) | -16.4 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#342) | -2.92 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.73 (#330) | -4.75 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.304 (#349) | 0.374 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 23.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 61.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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