Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +450 UNM -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +19 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -6.9 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -7.3 (-11.7) | 148.6 (+12.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -6.3 (-12.7) | 145.9 (+15.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -6.3 (-12.7) | 148.1 (+12.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -5.9 (-13.1) | 150.9 (+10.1) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#167) | 7.1 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#331) | 0.74 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.35 (#344) | 0.65 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.348 (#331) | 0.502 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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