Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Pepperdine Waves
71 – 90
FINAL Neutral Ball Dawgs Classic
New Mexico Lobos
Lee's Family Forum (Neutral) · November 24, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -8.5 Away covered
O/U 156.5 Over
Money PEPP +450 / UNM -500
Model Predictions
Spread Total PEPP win
Actual UNM +19 161 Lost
Massey UNM -6.9 (-12.1) — —
Massey Totals — 152.6 (+8.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 4% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 1% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNM -7.3 (-11.7) 148.6 (+12.4) 27% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -6.3 (-12.7) 145.9 (+15.1) 25% ✓
Baseline ML UNM -6.3 (-12.7) 148.1 (+12.9) 28% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNM -5.9 (-13.1) 150.9 (+10.1) 27% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PEPP UNM
Overall 13-20 26-10
Conference 5-11 10-8
Home 9-8 13-3
Away 3-8 5-6
Neutral 1-4 8-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.4 80.8
Avg Pts Against 75.2 71.2
Massey 0.2 (#167) 7.1 (#68)
Bradley-Terry -2.42 (#331) 0.74 (#122)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.35 (#344) 0.65 (#149)
RPI 0.348 (#331) 0.502 (#169)
Shooting & Four Factors PEPP UNM
FG% 47.6% 45.4%
3PT% 35.3% 30.6%
REB / G 35.5 42.2
OREB / G 11.3 13.4
AST / TO 0.87 1.46
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 49.3%
TOV% 20.8% 13.9%
ORB% 33.7% 33.8%
FT Rate 22.7% 24.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 46.1%
Opp TOV% 19.1% 19.5%
DRB% 77.5% 75.4%
Opp FT Rate 29.5% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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