Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | VT +175 ISU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -15.4 (+24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -9.7 (+18.7) | 138.1 (-5.1) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -10.2 (+19.2) | 144.2 (-11.2) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -10.4 (+19.4) | 144.3 (-11.3) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -10.3 (+19.3) | 142.4 (-9.4) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 18-0 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 61.5 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#56) | 23.0 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#134) | 2.00 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#109) | 2.82 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#176) | 0.582 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.24 | 2.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 29.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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