Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -500 UAPB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +18 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -16.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -13.1 (+4.9) | 150.2 (+15.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -12.5 (+5.5) | 151.4 (+14.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -12.6 (+5.4) | 147.3 (+18.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -13.2 (+4.8) | 148.7 (+17.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#228) | -11.9 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#135) | -1.40 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#152) | -2.45 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#117) | 0.424 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 37.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 58.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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