Betting Lines
| Spread | JXST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +130 JXST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -3.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -0.9 (-15.9) | 144.2 (-5.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -3.5 (-18.5) | 142.0 (-3.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -4.1 (-19.1) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -3.9 (-18.9) | 145.6 (-6.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#286) | -1.9 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#269) | -2.82 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#271) | -3.77 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#318) | 0.222 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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