Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VT -138 BOIS +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | VT -6.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -4.1 (+2.9) | 137.9 (+19.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -4.7 (+2.3) | 142.3 (+14.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -4.4 (+2.6) | 143.3 (+13.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -6.1 (+0.9) | 141.3 (+15.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#56) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#134) | 1.05 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#109) | 1.91 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#176) | 0.709 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.24 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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