Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | USC -135 OU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -9.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -6.2 (+4.2) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -5.3 (+3.3) | 141.3 (+0.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -3.6 (+1.6) | 142.2 (-0.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -5.2 (+3.2) | 143.0 (-1.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#87) | 15.2 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#78) | 2.15 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#95) | 3.43 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#64) | 0.566 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 38.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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