Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -480 ORST +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +25 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -17.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -13.4 (+11.6) | 152.9 (-25.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -11.8 (+13.2) | 148.4 (-21.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -12.0 (+13.0) | 151.0 (-24.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -13.3 (+11.7) | 153.1 (-26.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#18) | -3.7 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#156) | 0.61 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#159) | 1.48 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#191) | 0.543 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 49.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 82.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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