Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | FLA +130 BAY -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +4 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -1.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.4 (-1.6) | 158.2 (+27.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -1.7 (-2.3) | 157.1 (+28.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -0.5 (-3.5) | 156.6 (+29.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.3 (-2.7) | 156.8 (+29.2) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#30) | 11.7 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#80) | 2.97 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#84) | 4.59 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#43) | 0.665 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 42.0% |
| REB / G | 43.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 43.6% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 38.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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