Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -27.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +35 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -29.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -24.0 (+11.0) | 128.2 (-5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -23.0 (+12.0) | 131.2 (-8.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -27.4 (+7.6) | 131.0 (-8.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -26.4 (+8.6) | 131.2 (-8.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#6) | -2.3 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#20) | -0.72 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#23) | -0.97 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#35) | 0.555 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 11.6% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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