Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -500 KC +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -7.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -7.9 (+4.1) | 138.3 (+1.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -6.1 (+5.9) | 145.3 (-5.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -6.2 (+5.8) | 147.4 (-7.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -6.3 (+5.7) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#142) | -6.3 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#99) | -0.15 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#131) | -0.09 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#101) | 0.634 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 21.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 46.5% |
Game Analysis
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