Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -550 DAV +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +34 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -1.7 (+35.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -0.0 (+34.0) | 128.5 (+15.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SMC -0.4 (+33.6) | 126.0 (+18.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SMC -0.2 (+33.8) | 125.7 (+18.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.7 (+34.7) | 126.3 (+17.7) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SMC 70 – 61 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 9-0 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#235) | 5.5 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#283) | 0.01 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#236) | 0.54 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#215) | 0.484 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 24.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.2% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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