Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -36.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +30 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -21.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -23.2 (+6.8) | 143.5 (+6.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -18.2 (+11.8) | 144.5 (+5.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -21.0 (+9.0) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -22.2 (+7.8) | 143.9 (+6.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 4-16 |
| Home | 17-0 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | W13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#12) | 0.1 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#17) | 2.63 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#19) | 4.05 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#27) | 0.571 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 43.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 44.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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