Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | TNST -140 MER +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -0.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.4 (-0.6) | 137.2 (-18.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.1 (-1.1) | 141.2 (-22.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.0 (-1.0) | 142.9 (-23.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.1 (+0.1) | 142.1 (-23.1) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#150) | 0.8 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#42) | 0.51 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#36) | 0.35 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.709 (#15) | 0.530 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 27.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 41.3% |
Game Analysis
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