Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | TOL +162 INST -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -3.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.6 (-0.4) | 158.9 (-8.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.5 (+0.5) | 160.6 (-10.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -1.7 (-0.3) | 163.6 (-13.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -2.2 (+0.2) | 163.2 (-13.2) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#99) | 8.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#117) | 0.77 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#162) | 0.85 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#136) | 0.551 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 55.0% |
| 3PT% | 42.7% | 43.4% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 64.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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