Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +280 NCSU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -16.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -10.4 (+4.4) | 136.2 (+25.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -10.4 (+4.4) | 138.4 (+23.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -11.6 (+5.6) | 137.2 (+24.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -12.2 (+6.2) | 134.6 (+27.4) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | NCSU 70 – 66 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-10 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#309) | 8.2 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#219) | 1.22 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#250) | 1.84 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#167) | 0.555 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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