Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | FAU +145 TA&M -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +7 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -6.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -3.4 (+10.4) | 140.4 (+44.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -4.1 (+11.1) | 144.8 (+40.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -4.8 (+11.8) | 146.3 (+38.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -4.9 (+11.9) | 143.3 (+41.7) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#67) | 14.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#146) | 3.98 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#157) | 6.20 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#77) | 0.735 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 44.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 17.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 12.1% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 46.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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